The StarSeries 4 Finals begin tonight, marking the first premier LAN event since the major in January. There have been a plethora of roster changes since then, as well as prior transactions that can now be unveiled post major roster-lock. We've already seen some of these changes in play last weekend at cs_summit 2, but the stakes will be raised here Kiev, which will certainly have a much less laid-back environment than Los Angeles. There are 16 teams in attendance for this weeklong event, here's how they stack up along with their predicted group stage records.
16: MVP PK (0-3)
15: Tyloo (0-3)
MVP PK and Tyloo are both explicitly not bad teams, but they are also both explicitly unexceptional teams with unexceptional talent levels compared to the rest of the teams in attendance. Tyloo might surprise a team and steal a map, but the group stage being best-of-three affairs should prevent them from chaining surprise victories into a quarterfinals appearance.
14: Virtus.pro (1-3)
13: Renegades: (1-3)
VP cut their worst player, Renegades lost their best player, and both rosters will likely struggle to adapt to their new fifths. MICHU has been the premier pole-in-waiting for VP for years now, but replacing TaZ with an above average player (or even just average, which MICHU is more than) will not be a panacea for Virtus Pro's problems. It will take time, and possibly more changes, for them to turn back into the Virtus Plow.
For Renegades, their problems are much more straightforward: Jkaem is a less talented player than NAF. Not to say he is a bad player, in fact I think he can do a lot for a midtier team. But if NAF couldn't take RNG to the next level, Jkaem won't be the player to do so.
12: HellRaisers (1-3)
11: Gambit (2-3)
10: Natus Vincere (2-3)
Hellraisers, Gambit and NaVi are all good but flawed teams. NaVi have one of the most unique, impressive, and controversial talents in the game in S1mple, but Zeus is still leading the team, and poorly. They are slowly improving and growing as a team, but they are still too top-heavy. They could easily make it out of groups, but shouldn't realistically challenge for the title here.
For Gambit, they are still trying to fill the void that was created immediately after winning the Krakow major. Since then, and even before that event in truth, they haven't looked like a team capable of consistently placing in tournaments. Fitch, Zeus's replacement, has now been replaced with seized, who was previously underperforming with NaVi. This endless shuffle with NaVi doesn't look to solve any of Gambits identity problems.
HellRaisers will be playing with HS as a standin for ISSAA at this tournament. Even with their full roster in attendance at other events, they have yet to look like a lineup capable of big things. They've put together impressive group stage performances in the past, and can go toe to toe with top teams, but aren't consistent enough to take their game to the next level. They can be dangerous against any team, but shouldn't do any serious damage.
9: Heroic (2-3)
8: Astralis (3-2)
2018 could be a big year for these Danish rosters, as they both have new signings to unveil at this event. Heroic looked good last week in Los Angeles, where they took down North and unofficially claimed the title of Second Best Team in Denmark. Rubino will look to impress in his return to a top lineup, but the problem is that the player he is replacing, es3tag, was their second best performer at cs_summit 2. Heroic are a roster that look to be on the rise; they impress me more and more every event I see them at. The question for them is if their peak will be enough to take them into the upper echelon of CS. I don't think they are quite there yet, but they are getting close.
Astralis seemed to have been blindsided by the departure of Kjaerbye two weeks ago, but they quickly signed Magisk and are looking to come out swinging. Magisk has a lot to prove after failing to find success with the Optic experiment, and being cut from North before that. Thankfully, Astralis might be the perfect spot for him. He's still only 19, and needs players with maturity and patience to help him mature into a consistent player. in Astralis, even if he plays poorly, Dev1ce and co. are still talented enough to win against most opposition. That safety net should take some pressure off his shoulders, and help him find the form he had back on North. Astralis are a top team who have faced some serious adversity the past few months, but they should be able to rise above that and return to top form over the next few months.
7: mousesports (3-2)
6: fnatic (3-2)
Fnatic and mousesports are both teams that are slowly growing in form as they try to break into the highest echelon of CS. Not coincidentally, they are also two of the few teams at this tournament who haven't made a roster change in the last 5 months. For fnatic, they are trying to the glory days of old, when they were the best team in the world for the majority of 2015 with this same roster core. Golden and Lekro are stepping up against top talent, but the real story here is KRIMZ playing better than he ever has before - he had an insane rating of 1.33 at the major, and is averaging a 1.18 rating at LANs over the past three months. Fnatic are quietly become a top team again, and should do well this week.
For mousesports, the story is less of a return to form, but of finally capitalizing on potential. ChrisJ has been consistently inconsistent player for what seems like the entirety of CS:GO's lifetime, but he looks to be finally leading a team that rises to the next level. Mous notably took second at the ECS finals in December, where they Faze to three combined overtimes in an incredibly close best of three series. Despite that, and other impressive results, they've yet to win a premier LAN. They might not be able to do so here, but they can definitely challenge and surprise any teams that aren't fully prepared.
5: Liquid (3-1)
Liquid announced NAF's arrival by means of winning cs_summit 2. While most outside observers agreed that JDM was underperforming, there were questions about how the roster would gel without a dedicated awper and if NAF made sense from a role perspective. Impressive victories over C9 and SK definitely resolved those questions in the short term, but there's no guarantee those issues won't rise to surface as the honeymoon period wears off for Liquid. When a team performs well immediately after making a new signing, there will always be questions about whether the surprise factor, lowered expectations, and lack of scouting material for the opposition are affecting the results. Liquid certainly looked like a top team last week, and they certainly have enough talent to be a top team, but whether they can harness that talent to challenge for titles tournament after tournament remains to be seen.
4: G2 (3-1)
At this point, G2 are a fairly known entity. They have more experience and talent than most other teams, but are a clear step below the very top teams. They can win tournaments when the favorites underperform, but don't look to ever surpass those teams long term. G2 should do well at this tournament, but it will require a few lucky breaks for them to take home the trophy.
3: SK (3-1) 2: Cloud9 (3-0) 1: FaZe (3-0)
Boltz looked to be exactly the player SK needed when he first joined them. However, since the major the whole team has looked a step or two off the beat. Maybe playing with felps messed up their juju, or maybe boltz isn't quite the caliber of player he looked when he first arrived. For whatever reason SK don't quite look themselves. This slump doesn't yet seem as serious as the one they had last spring, but they aren't playing with the same swagger as they've previously had, even during that slump, and that is perhaps more worrying. I'm more interested in seeing how SK play, rather than the exact results. They need to show they still have that X-factor that has been the difference maker for them over the past few years.
Cloud9 are the major winners and are the de facto favorites due to series wins over SK and FaZe. However, they suffered a slight hangover last week when they lost to liquid in the cs_summit 2 finals. NA derbies are always impossible to predict due to the familiarity between the players, so one should hesitate to put too much weight into that loss. On the other hand, C9 winning the major in the first place might be the most stunning and unbelievable runs in the history of the game, so who knows how much weight to actually put into that as well. All in all, C9 are a top team and shouldn't be discredited in the least for their accomplishments. However, if you replay the match between C9 and FaZe 100 times, FaZe would definitely win the majority of those 100. Especially if you replay just the final map of Inferno. While I don't think C9 are a cindarella story, I do think they still match up unfavorably against FaZe and aren't the #1 team coming into this tournament.
When every player on FaZe are playing their best, they are without a doubt the most talented lineup in CS:GO. They should be hungry after losing the major in such a devastating fashion, with 4 straight match points slipping through their grasp. Expect FaZe to play with a chip on their shoulder, and to demolish any team they come up against in the group stage.
Cloud9 vs Heroic
SK vs MVP PK
fnatic vs Gambit
FaZe vs Tyloo
NaVi vs HellRaisers
G2 vs Renegades
Astralis vs Liquid
mousesports vs Virtus.Pro