The main stage of the Berlin Major is finally upon us! Last week was the Main Qualifier, which saw eight teams advance to Group Stage, where they meet eights Legends from the Katowice Major earlier this year. The Group Stage kicks off in just a few hours, but first let's review our predictions from the Main Qualifier.
Six correct picks is enough to stay alive for the Diamond coin, but that requires playing a matchmaking game on Dust2, which might keep me from qualifying even if I nail my Pick'Ems. For the incorrect picks, the 3-0 and 0-3 picks are always the hardest to predict. CR4ZY did advance, so that pick completely off-base. I completely missed the ball on Grayhound, who played some solid CS despite failing to advance. I worried that Furia would not be able to advance their game after teams finally were able to get a read on them, and that's exactly what happened to them. For the six correct picks, Vitality looked the shakiest of them all, while Mousesports and North both looked outstanding. With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the eight Legend teams joining the competition in the group stage:
Liquid is the best team in Counter-Strike right now. They've proved that time and again since June, when they officially overtook Astralis in the HLTV World Ranking. Replacing TACO with Stewie2K was questioned at the time, but it turned out to be the right, as they've slowly grown themselves into unbeatable form since fully integrating him into the roster. Rosters in CS are always more complex in reality than on paper, but in hindsight it seems braindead obvious that replacing a good-not-great entry fragger with one of the best players in the world would be an upgrade overall. This is Liquid's chance to finally win a major and cement their place in CS:GO history. They should easily advance through to the knockout stage.
Liquid may have the HLTV Ranking, but Astralis are the de facto champions of the world in CS:GO, as they are the reigning Champions of the past two Majors. It's been six months since the last Major though, and that is an eternity in the esports world. Since then, they've skipped almost every Premier LAN event, instead focusing almost exclusively on BLAST Pro Series events of questionable quality. That lack of activity, coupled with the slight drop in form they've shown at events they have attended, has resulted in the community effectively declaring the Astralis Era over. If they can rediscover their form from 2018, they can re-open that chapter and become the first ever Three-peat Major Winners. They should have no trouble advancing here at the group stage.
If you want one player to focus on for the Major, it has to be S1mple. He was HLTV's #1 player of the year in 2018, and has been in even better individual form in 2019. Despite that, NaVi's team results in 2019 haven't looked quite as good as 2018. Electronic is another top-tier player, but Zeus has a very below par skill level for a professional player, and both flamie and Boombl4 are inconsistent players. All that combines for a very entertaining and hard to predict NaVi team. When everything clicks, they look like they should be favorites to win the Major. When things are off though, they are really off. Even S1mple can look mortal when the players around him can't get anything done on their own. Expect NaVi to advance to the knockout rounds, but they could easily lose a few maps before qualifying.
ENCE were the surprise story in Katowice, where they finished in second place. They are the surprise story already here in Berlin, as the organization announced last week that they plan to bench Aleksib, their In-Game-Leader, after the Major. However, due to roster lock rules, they still have to play with him here in Berlin. Normally you would think this would spell disaster for a team, as they know the results here won't affect the changes that are coming, no matter the result. CS:GO is a strange game though, and the Finnish are a strange people. Aleksib and co. could find that lack of meaning freeing and play a loose and free style of CS. They still have tons of fragging talent, and could surprise opponents with some unorthodox plays. ENCE are a true wildcard, but they will advance from the group stage before bombing out hard in the knockouts.
MIBR find themselves in a slightly similar situation with Coldzera, a star player and former #1 player in the world, on the bench. They bit the bullet and benched him back in July, though, rather than forcing him to play with four other players who don't him around and who he doesn't want to play with. They instead will field Zews, their manager, as a stand-in. MIBR have been in roster flux for what feels like years now, and this iteration looks worse than when they had Tarik and Stewie in the squad. MIBR will be eliminated in the group stage.
Is this going to be the last Major for f0rest and GeTRiGht? It seems like we ask ourselves that question every single Major. This time, the fears and questions seem a little more valid. It might be the last time we see GeTRiGht in a Ninjas jersey at the very least. The organization seems to be not-so-subtly forcing him out and encouraging him to retire rather than sign for a different team. Unfortunately, sentimentality doesn't often transfer well into the server. NiP are an old team that have never matched their glory from the early days of CS:GO. NIP will be eliminated in the group stage.
NEO is a veteran player who we thought already had his last hurrah at the Majors. FaZe brought him in from the purgatory of tier 2 Polish CS to try and fill a leadership gap in their squad. FaZe have been trying to fill that gap since they kicked Karrigan, and have yet to find the solution. FaZe are fundamentally a broken squad, and no amount of veteran leadership can possibly fix that. They should do tons of damage to lesser skilled teams, but will get out-stratted in a best-of-three against top opposition. FaZe will be eliminated in the group stage.
To be clear, I am sleeping on the boys. I just don't think other teams should sleep on them. They have the firepower to upset some favorites in a best-of-one. They just don't have the map pool or strategy to win a best-of-three. Renegades won't make it out of the group stage.